By: Alistair Kroon– SeaPRwire – Oil jumped hard on September 10 because two chokepoints tightened at once. Hormuz stayed contested. Bab el-Mandeb came under fresh pressure from Houthi advances on shore and islands. Benchmark crude cleared one hundred dollars. Diesel in the United States broke six dollars a gallon for the first time. The market priced the risk that neither waterway would return to normal soon. That is the immediate fact on the board.

Official statements from the same day lay out the sequence. The U.S. Treasury added individuals and entities linked to Iran’s proxy networks in the Middle East to its sanctions list. The list includes members of Lebanese Hezbollah. The move forms part of the broader economic isolation campaign against Iran. U.S. Central Command reported that its maritime blockade of Iran had already forced ninety-six commercial ships to change course. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy stated it destroyed a U.S. unmanned surface vessel, hull number 5838, at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC claimed the strait remains under its control and intelligence surveillance and warned that any hostile action would be met with force. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations office recorded reports of two ships attacked near Hormuz. A master reported seeing four unidentified flying objects strike two vessels west of Seeb in the Sea of Oman. One ship caught fire. The status of the second remained unclear. UKMTO kept the threat level for Hormuz at “severe” and rated the Gulf of Aden plus the Bab el-Mandeb–southern Red Sea corridor as “elevated.” It advised commercial vessels to maintain high vigilance and monitor temporary navigation warnings. In Yemen the Houthis captured the Red Sea port city of Mocha after hours of fighting. Mocha sits in Taiz province roughly eighty kilometers from Bab el-Mandeb and served as a key supply point for government forces on the Red Sea coast. Yemeni government officials said that after the withdrawal of government naval units the Houthis had deployed forces on the Hanish Islands north of the strait. Those islands hold strategic value for monitoring and securing the shipping lane. A Houthi spokesman described the operations as defensive and limited in scope. He said the actions would end once attacks on the group ceased and the blockade was lifted. He asserted that navigation through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb remained safe and normal and posed no threat to international shipping. Before the wider conflict roughly twelve percent of global oil transit passed through Bab el-Mandeb. After the U.S. and Israeli actions against Iran and Iran’s response in Hormuz, the strait became an alternative route for Saudi crude bound for Asia.
The same record carries a harder geopolitical edge. Physical disruption in Hormuz has already stranded large volumes of crude inside the Persian Gulf. The ninety-six diverted ships and the reported vessel attacks show the waterway is no longer functioning as a routine transit corridor. Simultaneously the Houthi seizure of Mocha and the Hanish Islands places forces that have previously targeted shipping closer to the second critical passage. Bab el-Mandeb is the remaining outlet for Gulf crude that cannot exit via Hormuz. Any sustained interference there multiplies the supply shock. Oil prices reflected that dual risk on the day. West Texas Intermediate for October delivery rose 6.43 dollars to settle at 102.48 dollars a barrel, a 6.69 percent gain. Brent for November delivery climbed 6.42 dollars to 107.63 dollars, up 6.34 percent. Both contracts reached their highest levels since May and posted the largest single-day advances in nearly two months. U.S. national average diesel prices, tracked by GasBuddy, crossed six dollars a gallon for the first time on record. The market is therefore pricing not only the existing Hormuz constraint but the credible threat that the alternative route through Bab el-Mandeb could also tighten.
The practical measure is now binary. Watch daily vessel transit counts through both straits and the status of the Hanish Islands and Mocha. Those two data points will show whether the dual pressure eases or locks in. Until clearances return to pre-escalation levels the geopolitical premium on crude will stay embedded in the price.
Author bio: Alistair Kroon, a veteran geopolitical commentator whose columns appear in major international newspapers and focus on energy chokepoints and great-power naval contests.
source https://newsroom.seaprwire.com/contributors/alistair-kroon/two-chokepoints-one-day-hormuz-and-bab-el-mandeb-push-oil-past-100/












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